تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار کشور ایران‌(‌متغیر تعدیل گر تصمیمات سیاسی)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی استخراج ازرساله و پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد تهران مرکزی ،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.(نویسنده مسئول (dr.m.akhbari@gmail.com‌)

3 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشیارگروه جغرافیای اقلیم شناسی، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
بزرگ‌ترین تهدید زیست‌محیطی امروز گرمایش جهانی و تغییرات اقلیمی است. اثرات تغییر اقلیم منجر به کمبود آب و غذا، بیماری، بیکاری و مهاجرت، فقر، تنش‌ها در خصوص منابع و بی‌ثباتی جهانی می‌شود. هدف از انجام این پژوهش تحلیل ژئوپلیتیکی اثرات تغییر اقلیم در کشور و تأثیر آن بر توسعه پایدار با توجه به تصمیمات سیاسی دولتمردان است. این مقاله از نوع توصیفی، تحلیلی و با روش پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل صاحب‌نظران و متخصصین شاغل در سازمان‌های هواشناسی، محیط‌زیست و پدافند غیرعامل است و پرسشنامه بر اساس شاخص‌های اثرات تغییر اقلیم، توسعه پایدار و تصمیمات سیاسی طراحی و در بین آن‌ها توزیع گردید که تعداد 60 پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شد و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار (pls) فرضیه تحقیق اثبات گردید. بر اساس یافته‌ها اثرات تغییر اقلیم با توسعه پایدار رابطه معنادار و معکوس دارد، همچنین بین تأثیرات تصمیمات سیاسی بر توسعه پایدار ایران رابطه معناداری و معکوس وجود دارد. درنهایت تصمیمات سیاسی در تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم بر توسعه پایدار ایران اثر تعدیل گر ندارد. بدین معنی که برخلاف سایر کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و حتی در حال توسعه، تصمیمات سیاسی گرفته شده در دولت در کاهش اثرات تغییر اقلیم در کشور مؤثر نبوده است. در پایان بر لزوم مشارکت دولت در اجرای روش‌های مؤثر از جمله آبخیزداری و استفاده از انرژی‌های پاک جهت کاهش انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای برای سازگاری با اثرات تغییر اقلیم تأکید شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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